Time series forecasting for dynamic environments: The DyFor Genetic Program model

Copyright © 2007 IEEESeveral studies have applied genetic programming (GP) to the task of forecasting with favorable results. However, these studies, like those applying other techniques, have assumed a static environment, making them unsuitable for many real-world time series which are generated by varying processes. This study investigates the development of a new ldquodynamicrdquo GP model that is specifically tailored for forecasting in nonstatic environments. This dynamic forecasting genetic program (DyFor GP) model incorporates features that allow it to adapt to changing environments automatically as well as retain knowledge learned from previously encountered environments. The DyFor GP model is tested for forecasting efficacy on both simulated and actual time series including the U.S. Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index Inflation. Results show that the performance of the DyFor GP model improves upon that of benchmark models for all experiments. These findings highlight the DyFor GP's potential as an adaptive, nonlinear model for real-world forecasting applications and suggest further investigations.Neal Wagner, Zbigniew Michalewicz, Moutaz Khouja, and Rob Roy McGrego

Interventions to prevent Lyme disease in humans: A systematic review

Lyme disease (LD) is an infection transferred to humans through bites from infected ticks. Surveillance indicates that the number of LD cases is increasing in the UK, therefore, improved knowledge about reducing transmission from ticks to humans is needed. Eighteen electronic databases were searched and additional web-based searching was conducted, to locate empirical research, published from 2002 onwards. Sixteen studies that evaluated five types of prevention intervention were included: personal protection (n = 4), domestic strategies (landscape modification and chemical pest control) (n = 3), education (n = 6), vaccination (n = 3), and deer-reduction programmes (n = 2). In general the quality of evidence was low. Results suggest that personal protection strategies, including the use of tick repellents and wearing of protective clothes, can prevent tick bites and reduce the incidence of LD among adults. Educational interventions were generally successful for improving adults' knowledge, behavioural beliefs (e.g., self-efficacy for performing tick checks) and preventative behaviour, but for children, the findings were mixed. For adults and children, knowledge changes did not typically translate into a lower incidence of LD. Whilst evidence on vaccination against LD is promising, too few studies were available to reach robust conclusions. There was no evidence of effectiveness for deer culling, and the evidence was inconclusive for applying acaricide (tick poison) to deer's ears and heads. Low-quality evidence suggests that personal protective strategies, that limit exposure to ticks, should continue to be recommended, as should education to encourage the adoption of personal protective strategies; further investigation of education interventions for children, vaccination and deer programmes is needed

Interventions to prevent Lyme disease in humans : A systematic review

Lyme disease (LD) is an infection transferred to humans through bites from infected ticks. Surveillance indicates that the number of LD cases is increasing in the UK, therefore, improved knowledge about reducing transmission from ticks to humans is needed. Eighteen electronic databases were searched and additional web-based searching was conducted, to locate empirical research, published from 2002 onwards. Sixteen studies that evaluated five types of prevention intervention were included: personal protection (n = 4), domestic strategies (landscape modification and chemical pest control) (n = 3), education (n = 6), vaccination (n = 3), and deer-reduction programmes (n = 2). In general the quality of evidence was low. Results suggest that personal protection strategies, including the use of tick repellents and wearing of protective clothes, can prevent tick bites and reduce the incidence of LD among adults. Educational interventions were generally successful for improving adults' knowledge, behavioural beliefs (e.g., self-efficacy for performing tick checks) and preventative behaviour, but for children, the findings were mixed. For adults and children, knowledge changes did not typically translate into a lower incidence of LD. Whilst evidence on vaccination against LD is promising, too few studies were available to reach robust conclusions. There was no evidence of effectiveness for deer culling, and the evidence was inconclusive for applying acaricide (tick poison) to deer's ears and heads. Low-quality evidence suggests that personal protective strategies, that limit exposure to ticks, should continue to be recommended, as should education to encourage the adoption of personal protective strategies; further investigation of education interventions for children, vaccination and deer programmes is needed

Salinity effects on germination, growth and mineral nutrition of Ricinus communis seedlings

The salinity effects on the germination and the growth of greenhouse grown castor bean (Ricinus communis L.) from three local provenances (Sidi Thabet, Grombalia and Kairouan) were studied. Plants were grown in sand-perlite mixture and irrigated with solution containing 0, 2, 5, and 10 g/l NaCl. The effect of salt stress on germination was weakly pronounced in the case of castor bean for the three provenances compared to control. Moreover, salt stress induced significant differences on plant growth during the experimental period. After 80 stress days, decreases in plant height were observed. 10 g/l NaCl has an intense depressive effect on seedling stage. The seedlings have not completed their development and this is noticed for all provenances. 5 g/l NaCl has also an intense depressive effect only for Grombalia. With regards to the mineral nutrition, hypocotyls are more concentrated in Na+ and Cl− than the other organs. Thus, we observed a slight increase in K+ concentration for 2 and 5 g/l NaCl compared to control, especially for Kairouan in stems. Based on the stability of the tolerance to salinity from germinative stage to seedlings stage, the provenance of Kai rouan was identified as the most tolerant and the provenance of Grombalia as the most sensitive to salt toxicity

Influence of the drought on antioxidant and enzymatic activities of two Pinus species in humid and sub-humid climate

Pinus genus is widespread in the Mediterranean region and the most common in Tunisia. The impact of high temperatures in the mid-summer period (July 2015 and July 2016) on phenols and biological properties were examined in vitro. The study was carried out in two arboreta, in humid and sub-humid climates, dry needles of Pinus pinea and Pinus pinaster were used for secondary metabolites, antioxidant activities, and enzymatic inhibitory activities. The amount of all measured parameters increased from 2015 to 2016 in the two pine species in the two arboreta. Pinus pinea produced more phenols and showed higher antioxidant activity and a-amylase and lipoxygenase inhibitory activities than Pinus pinaster. Besides, both species generally presented better biological activities and higher phenol amounts in 2016 than in 2015, being 2016 warmer and drier than 2015 in both harvest zones. It was evident that both species in every bioclimatic zones adapted to the new climate conditions producing more secondary metabolites that rendered better antioxidant and inhibitory enzymatic activities. These findings confirmed the impact of mid-summer water deficits on pine species in the context of climate change and help to select the most resistant species for future reforestation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Development of a cost-effective optical sensor for continuous monitoring of turbidity and suspended particulate matter in marine environment

A cost-effective optical sensor for continuous in-situ monitoring of turbidity and suspended particulate matter concentration (SPM), with a production cost in raw materials less than 20 €, is presented for marine or fluvial applications. The sensor uses an infrared LED and three photodetectors with three different positions related to the light source-135º, 90º and 0º-resulting in three different types of light detection: backscattering, nephelometry and transmitted light, respectively. This design allows monitoring in any type of environment, offering a wide dynamic range and accuracy for low and high turbidity or SPM values. An ultraviolet emitter-receiver pair is also used to differentiate organic and inorganic matter through the differences in absorption at different wavelengths. The optical transducers are built in a watertight structure with a radial configuration where a printed circuit board with the electronic signal coupling is assembled. An in-lab calibration of the sensor was made to establish a relation between suspended particulate matter (SPM) or the turbidity (NTU) to the photodetectors' electrical output value in Volts. Two different sizes of seashore sand were used (180 µm and 350 µm) to evaluate the particle size susceptibility. The sensor was tested in a fluvial environment to evaluate SPM change during sediment transport caused by rain, and a real test of 22 days continuous in-situ monitoring was realized to evaluate its performance in a tidal area. The monitoring results were analysed, showing the SPM change during tidal cycles as well as the influence of the external light and biofouling problems.Funding Agency Programa Operacional Regional do Norte (NORTE2020), through Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER) NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000032 European Union through the European Regional Development Fund, based on COMPETE 2020 (Programa Operacional da Competitividade e Internacionalizacao), project ICT UID/GEO/04683/2013 POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007690 Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (FCT)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio